[phobos]

Zitat:

Grabbed byHoldem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.60)
BB ($10.14)
Hero ($10.59)
BTN ($10)

Dealt to Hero T A

Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, BB calls $0.30

FLOP ($0.85) T 3 A

BB checks, Hero bets $0.63, BB calls $0.63

TURN ($2.11) T 3 A 3

BB checks, Hero bets $1.70, BB raises to $9.11 (AI), Hero ???

villain spielte 75/18 über 41 Hands, postflop wirkte er allerdings eher passiv ( AF: 0.5)
im Prinzip n fold oder?

[bozzo]

also ich calle das. geschlagen sind wir von 33, A3, T3, AA, TT, alles wohl arg unwahrscheinlich, vorallem sehe ich für ihn keinen grund mit einem monster am turn auf so einem board zu pushen. ich denke er hält da einfach sehr oft Ax gegen welches wir das bessere two pair haben oder hat am turn zu einem fd improved.

[ted forrest fan]

Ich schliesse mich Bozzo an. Ich sehe hier eher ein Ass, welches sich gerade zum Two Pair verbessert hat, als ein Set oder ein Full.

[phobos]

Er hatte 10% 3bet, weiss also zumindest was das ist. Und daher besteht die Wahrscheinlichkeit dass er AK und evtl AQ preflop 3bettet.
Wenns ein Vollfish ist der TP massiv überbewertet dann wird er imo wohl eher den flop raisen/gleich pushen.
Ich kann mir einfach keine callingstation vorstellen die hier mit Ax den turn pusht.
Von daher geb ich ihm eher air oder ne Hand die mich beat hat.

Da versucht man einmal einen toughen fold zu machen und plötzlich sagen alle call

[bozzo]

er hat nen 10% 3bet wert aber einen af von 0.5?

[JERU]

Die Stats auf 41 Hände ist sind eh ....

[John_Doe]

ich poste, wenn ich am abned wieder daheimbin eine interessante statistik zu so nem spot

[Primeaux182]

Ich würde hier auch callen. Die Stats sind jetzt nich so aussagekräftig. Wenn er x3 hat, ist's doof gelaufen

John_Doe Mastermind (ehemals Leachim) hat geschrieben:

ich poste, wenn ich am abned wieder daheimbin eine interessante statistik zu so nem spot

Ob das interessant ist, entscheiden wohl immer noch wir, die es zu lesen haben

[Kcyrion]

Ich folde.
75/18 bezahlt den Preflop-raise aus dem BB mit fast allem. Durchaus möglich, dass er 3x hält. FD wird er wohl mit dem AF nicht pushen und warum sollte er mit dem AF ausgerechnet jetzt bluffen?
Auch wenns nur 41 Hände sind ist die Tendenz doch recht deutlich.

Genau in solchen Spots bin ich bisher zu 80-90% auf die Schnautze gefallen.

[John_Doe]

Primeaux182 hat geschrieben:

Ich würde hier auch callen. Die Stats sind jetzt nich so aussagekräftig. Wenn er x3 hat, ist's doof gelaufen

John_Doe Mastermind (ehemals Leachim) hat geschrieben:

ich poste, wenn ich am abned wieder daheimbin eine interessante statistik zu so nem spot

Ob das interessant ist, entscheiden wohl immer noch wir, die es zu lesen haben

na dann sag mal:

Zitat:

What happens when we fail to value bet?

Otherwise known as, "I can't win because they always suck out on me!"


First, the ideal situation. Three streets of value from a calling station:

Villain is 40/3/0.1 after 80 hands. His preflop limping range is huge. When he check/calls flop his range is something like A2/A3/A4/A6/A7/A8/AT/AJ/89/9T/56/45/67/78/55/99. AQ/A9/A5 are possible but you have to think even someone this passive is leading a lot of the time.

So we are well ahead of his calling range even though our kicker is marginal.

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP2: $1.32
CO: $3.78
BTN: $1.66
SB: $0.77
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.04
UTG+1: $2.00
UTG+2: $0.71
MP1: $2.32

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A 8
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, UTG+2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.13) 5 A 9 (6 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds

Turn: ($0.33) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $.25, UTG+1 calls

River: ($0.83) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, UTG+1 calls

Final pot: $2.33 - $.12 rake

UTG+1 shows: A2
Hero wins: $2.21 ($1.09 in profit)


According to PokerStove, our equity on the flop is almost 71% but we only win 54.08% of the time:

Board: 5s Ah 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.859% 54.08% 16.78% 4283 1329.00 { As8c }
Hand 1: 29.141% 12.36% 16.78% 979 1329.00 { A2s, A2o }

Please read that again - Even though we have a dominating hand and appear to be way ahead, we're actually only winning 54.08% because we wind up splitting the pot 16.78% of the time. What's more, the calling station will outdraw us almost 30% of the time!

In a split pot, the worst case scenario is that stacks go in and we lose a full $.10 to the rake. For simplicity sake we're just going to make this assumption that for any split pot we lose $.10.

54.08% of the time we win $1.09.
16.78% of the time we lose $.10.
29.14% of the time we lose ???.

So how much do we lose?

With TPNK against a calling station we are folding if he ever raises. He's basically never raising with a worse hand and even when he has a monster he's not always raising - Either because he's slowplaying or just because he's a station.

If he hits his 2pair on the turn and raises this hand costs us $.37.
If he hits his 2pair on the river and raises (or slowplays the turn) this hand costs us $1.12. Whether he raises river or just calls out third barrel doesn't matter. We lose the hand either way - by folding or at showdown.

So how often are we folding the turn and how often are we folding the river/losing showdown?

When he hits his 2pair, half the time he's going to hit it on the turn and half the time on the river. However, he's just calling the turn with 2pair a significant amount of the time. So I'm going to estimate that he raises the turn 25% of the time and we see the river the other 75% of the time.

So when we lose, we lose ($.37x.25+$1.12x.75) $.93.

54.08% of the time we win $1.09.
16.78% of the time we lose $.10.
29.14% of the time we lose $.93.

Our expected value from this hand is ($1.09x.5408-$.10x.1678-$.93x.2914) $.30. On average we will make $.30 on this hand.

Except there's one thing missing here. That's when we both make 2pair. When this happens we're going to win more than $1.09. But I'm not goign to go down this road because it requires a lot of assumptions about when a station will stack off. So instead just keep in mind that we actually average slightly more than $.30.



So that's what happens when we keep our foot on the gas and take our opponent on a ride to valuetown.

What happens when we blink?


Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP2: $1.32
CO: $3.78
BTN: $1.66
SB: $0.77
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.04
UTG+1: $2.00
UTG+2: $0.71
MP1: $2.32

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A 8
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, UTG+2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.13) 5 A 9 (6 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds

Turn: ($0.33) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($0.33) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Final pot: $.33 rake $.01

UTG+1 shows: A2
Hero wins: $.32 ($.20 in profit)

This is a really simplified case. We've assumed that villain checks it through here as well, even when he hits 2pair. Even the worst calling stations will bet there when they river 2pair. They're also betting their one pair hands sometimes after we check two streets. And of course we will hit out 2pair sometimes too.

Even though villain cooperates by checking it down, we're still only winning 54.08% of the time. However, because we've kept the pot small, I'm going to estimate that we only lose $.05 to a split pot as villain isn't going to stack off nearly as often. And of course we still lose 29.14% of the time.

54.08% of the time we win $.20.
16.78% of the time we lose $.05.
29.14% of the time we lose $.12.

Our expected value from this hand is ($.20x.5408-$.05x.1678-$.12x.2914) $.06. On average we will make $.06 on this hand.

Again, we've basically ignored the effects of 2pair over 2pair. But we're going to ignore it in all cases because it's difficult to model accurately (how often do we play for stacks?) and they should (more or less) cancel each other out because they occur just as often in all these cases.


Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP2: $1.32
CO: $3.78
BTN: $1.66
SB: $0.77
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.04
UTG+1: $2.00
UTG+2: $0.71
MP1: $2.32

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A 8
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, UTG+2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.13) 5 A 9 (6 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds

Turn: ($0.33) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $.25, UTG+1 calls

River: ($0.83) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Final pot: $.83 rake $.04

UTG+1 shows: A2
Hero wins: $.79 ($.42 in profit)

This is a really simplified case. We've assumed that villain checks it through here as well, even when he hits 2pair. Even the worst calling stations will bet there when they river 2pair. They're also betting their one pair hands sometimes after we check two streets. And of course we will hit out 2pair sometimes too.

Even though villain cooperates by checking it down, we're still only winning 54.08% of the time. However, because we've kept the pot small, I'm going to estimate that we only lose $.07 to a split pot as villain isn't going to stack off nearly as often. And of course we still lose 29.14% of the time.

54.08% of the time we win $.42.
16.78% of the time we lose $.07.
29.14% of the time we lose $.37.

Our expected value from this hand is ($.42x.5408-$.07x.1678-$.37x.2914) $.11. On average we will make $.11 on this hand.

In summary, our EV in these hands when we:
Bet all three streets: $.30
Bet two streets and check it through: $.11
Bet flop and then check it down: $.06

[Primeaux182]

Der interessante Artikel ist ein wenig lang und wenn ich Zeit habe, werde ich ihn mir durchlesen.

Danke für deine Mühe


Nun werde ich ein Selbstgespräch mit mir über Skype führen

[phobos]

Der Artikel war zwar interessant, sagt aber nicht wirklich was zum Thema.
Trotzdem danke

[Weglegnix]

Primeaux182 hat geschrieben:

Der interessante Artikel ist ein wenig lang und wenn ich Zeit habe, werde ich ihn mir durchlesen.

Danke für deine Mühe


Nun werde ich ein Selbstgespräch mit mir über Skype führen

Und wieso hast Du dann jetzt keine Zeit?

Ich fand den Artikel gut (ich stehe aber auch etwas auf solche Berechnungen). Jetzt muss man halt noch einfließen lassen, was das c/r bedeuten könnte und wie der EV eines Calls ist. Aber gecallt hätte ich wahrscheinlich auch...

[phobos]

du heisst ja auch weglegnix

noch jemand ne Meinung? bis jetzt haben wir 4*call vs 3*fold (einmal poemmel per skype...)

[John_Doe]

aufgrund der postflop passivität ein klarer fold IMO - ne 3 liegt auch locker in seiner range...

wäre es ein normaler fish, mit 40/5/1.9 oä, würde ich es callen